March 2, 2012
Presidential elections in Russia are predictable again. Those same people and mechanisms. There were no doubts concerning the candidacy of the following president of Russia. Authorities haven’t agreed to a political technological intrigue yet with the conduction of the second round. The premiere of the “Putin – ІІІ” sequel on March 4 will be successful.
None of sociological services of Russia didn’t consider a possibility of conduction of the second round. In Russia forecasts of sociological institutes have always been the spokesman of desires of the authorities concerning a configuration of political forces necessary for them.
A tacit consent of the authorities to the conduction of opposition rallies has brought about its positive consequences. Although the authorities have made this process controlled, they nevertheless are losing. The only plus is that the electorate has let off the stream. However, under any circumstances, the legitimacy of the victory will be “under doubt”.
The victory in the first round is a reason for criticism from the western political scientists: democracy has been humiliated.
The second round: the prime minister V.Putin – the communist G.Zyuganov — a reason for criticism from Russian political scientists: this is a manipulation of the Kremlin.
The victory in the second round with a big gap – journalists will call it an administrative resource.
The victory with a small gap — the holiday of the opposition, which hasn’t been capable of generating an alternative for already 15 years.
Protest actions in Russia have revealed problem points of the Russian political system. A new president will be compelled to restart it. It won’t be enough only to declare the necessity of democratic changes. V.Putin will search for ways of realization of the declared democracy. And they have to be adequate to protest demands of Russians. And here it will be impossible to limit oneself to electronic democracy only.
The issue of legitimacy of his election will be put in question. And first of all due to the application of the administrative resource. The virtualized young civil society will make resistance, and its methods will acquire new forms.
Today’s formation of the civil society in Russia will lead to the appearance of new leaders of the national scale. The history of Russia is rich with examples of unpredictable appearance of this sort of personalities. And this will happen before the termination of a 6-year term of office of the future president.
It is possible to ascertain that V.Putin already for the second time in his life faces the task of updating the Russian authorities. And it is the first time that he gets a possibility to remain a leader in the consciousness of Russians. The one who created a platform for a new stage of development of Russia, instead of being only the one who happened to receive the power. Six years of presidency is too little to change a geopolitical world map. However, it is a lot to improve life of millions of citizens. Apparently, he also doesn’t have to wait all the term.